Context
Collapse of “Super Mario.” Mario Draghi — the former head of the European Central Bank, often referred to as “Super Mario” — became Italy’s Prime Minister in February 2021 with the backing of several major parties across the political spectrum. Draghi helped Italy navigate the Covid-19 pandemic and negotiated an enormous financial recovery package from the European Union. However, earlier this year, cracks started to form in Draghi’s broad coalition. One of the parties boycotted a vote on a government-proposed aid package in July, effectively positioning coalition members against themselves. The stalemate led to a tumultuous week in Italian politics, ultimately ending when two other coalition parties refused to back Draghi in a confidence vote, prompting his resignation. Originally slated for early 2023, Draghi’s departure triggered snap elections.
Independent
Right-Wing Victory. Following the elections on Sunday, the most conservative government in decades is set to take control, with a coalition of three right-wing parties gaining majorities in both houses of the Italian Parliament. Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy party, is poised to become Italy’s first female Prime Minister. Meloni was the only major party leader who refused to join the national unity government that collapsed in July, making her well-positioned to run as an outsider. During the last general election in 2018, her party won just 4% of the vote. On Sunday, they took at least 26%, handily becoming the largest party in the government.
The coalition also includes The League — under the leadership of far-right firebrand Matteo Salvini and Forza Italia — led by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. The right-wing alliance collectively won nearly 44% of the vote, with the country’s center-left falling far behind, garnering only 26% in Sunday’s elections. Turnout was a record low, with many believing Italians are dismayed by the country’s political instability.
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Italian Identity. Meloni’s rallying cry — “I am Giorgia. I’m a woman, I’m a mother, I’m Italian, I’m Christian” — has resonated with many traditionalist Italians worried about the decline of the church, birth rates, and loss of Italian identity to corporatization. Italian identity can be described as Catholic principles driving localism, where interpersonal relationships build communities. Italian identity is made up of traditions, ways of living, thinking, and speaking that tie each Italian to the Campanile of the particular town/city/region in which they were born. Over the years, many corporate entities have begun encroaching on family-owned businesses, tearing at the fabric of this Italian identity — a battle between localism and globalism.
Mixed Feelings
Fratelli D’Italia. After World War II, Italy did not have a similar process to the “de-Nazification” of Germany, allowing fascist parties to reform. The Brothers of Italy has its political roots in the Italian Social Movement, a party which rose from Mussolini’s fascism. However, Meloni vehemently opposes the fascist label and has worked hard to distance her party from that legacy.
Instead, she is set to introduce sweeping welfare proposals, including more support for disabled people, childcare, the elderly, and Italian women. Meloni says they are meant to encourage higher birthrates and reduce reliance on immigrant workers — a major issue in Southern Italy with many North African migrants landing on Italian beaches with makeshift rafts. However, opposing parties have suggested these promises will likely add up to a lot of money, and a flat tax would likely further limit government income. This may increase pressure to borrow more, while Italy is already one of the most indebted countries in Europe. Meloni’s party is also socially conservative, opposing gay marriage and promoting traditional family values.
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European Union. Meloni is a Eurosceptic, meaning she is hesitant about Italy’s involvement in the European Union and other continental organizations. This has deeply troubled many other countries, as Italy is the bloc’s third-largest economy and one of its founding members. While she has not openly called for Italy to leave the euro or EU, some worry she could work with other right-wing governments, such as Hungary and Poland, particularly on migration. Meloni’s government is likely to take a stiffer position on such issues. She has called for a naval blockade to prevent migrant boats from leaving Libya, a cry echoed by other coalition party leaders.
Ukraine. Some EU leaders have also expressed concern that Italy’s drift right will weaken its support for Ukraine. While Meloni has backed sanctions on Russia and weapons exports to Ukraine, her fellow coalition leaders have praised Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russian gas used to represent a large portion of Italian energy imports, and global inflationary pressures have pushed energy prices up. Italians have struggled under the sanctions, having a weaker economy and fewer resources than their northern neighbors, leading some to worry that the public may pressure Meloni to roll back these punitive measures on Moscow.
The Right’s Rise
European Trends. The coalition’s victory underscores a broader pattern in European politics in recent years. There appears to be a growing anti-incumbency sentiment on the continent, and parties previously considered fringe are rebranding themselves, transitioning to serious electoral competitors. Just two weeks ago in Sweden, the far-right Sweden Democrats came in second place in a shock result that will displace the longtime ruling Social Democrats. Earlier this year, Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally party in France scored a similar victory, finishing second in the presidential and parliamentary elections.
All these parties previously operated on the outskirts of the political system, commonly viewed as extreme. Yet each has put in hard work to erase their links to darker ideologies, leading to surges in public support.