A comprehensive guide to the midterm elections
BBCMidterms. While presidential elections garner national fascination every four years, at the halfway point of a president’s term, the United States also holds elections known as midterms. These elections include contests in both chambers of Congress — all 435 members of the House of Representatives for two-year terms and one-third of the 100 Senators for staggered six-year terms. Democrats currently have the House majority, with 220 members to Republicans’ 212. In the Senate, there are 34 regularly scheduled seats up for election and one special election. Democrats — who control the thinnest possible majority in the chamber — hold 14 seats up for grabs, while Republicans have 21.
Toss-Up Races. Although there are a combined 470 congressional races, control of the legislature will likely come down to a few dozen battleground seats.
In the Senate, each competitive race could make or break both parties’ hopes of clinching the majority in the chamber. Democrats are defending vulnerable incumbents in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and New Hampshire, while Republicans hope to hold their seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Ohio. Observers say who will control the Senate is a coin flip.
The Washington Post
The House, however, is a different story. Analysts currently predict roughly three dozen competitive seats, with two-thirds of those held by Democrats. Although more seats than these could flip, experts believe these will be the closest races this cycle, and Republicans only need a net gain of five to win back the House — which they are heavily favored to get.
Governors. While federal contests draw the most attention, most states also have local and state races during the midterms. Perhaps the most significant among these are the races for governor — sometimes called gubernatorial elections. Governors are the chief executives of their states and hold a wide variety of powers, including implementing state laws. This cycle, 36 states have gubernatorial races — 20 Republican-held and 16 Democratic-held seats. However, only about a third of those are relatively competitive, with the most high-profile being Wisconsin, Oregon, Nevada, Kansas, and Arizona. Some traditional swing states with gubernatorial elections appear likely to not be very close at all due to weak challengers or entrenched incumbents.
E&E News
Other State Races. In addition to races for governor, many states have other statewide contests for their Supreme Court justices, lieutenant governors, attorneys general, and secretaries of state. While these positions typically receive much less notice, they exercise a broad range of powers and can significantly impact Americans’ day-to-day lives. Also, many states have portions or all of their legislature up for grabs, which enact laws on vital topics like healthcare, education, and public safety. Even a relatively small swing in some of these states could result in major policy changes.
Momentum Shift. For much of this campaign season, pundits have predicted Democrats would face stiff losses, dragged down by an unpopular President, voters’ concerns about the economy, and depressed Democratic enthusiasm. Adding to their troubles, the incumbent party typically loses seats in the midterm elections. However, over the summer, it looked like Democrats may buck those historical trends, as the overturning of Roe v. Wade reinvigorated their base, and a string of legislative achievements seemed to prompt an uptick in the President’s approval. Additionally, some analysts predicted that perceived poor candidate quality in high-profile races could cause the GOP to take some unnecessary losses. Yet, in the final weeks of the cycle, the tide appears to have turned back in the Republicans’ favor. Polls that once showed Democrats with comfortable leads in some of the most-watched races now show dead heats or Republican advantages, and the gap appears to be widening.
High-Profile Surrogates. As the election season draws to a close, many candidates are turning to popular figures to give them a boost in the final stretch. Political heavyweights like former Presidents Barack Obama, former President Donald Trump, and President Joe Biden all hit the trail to stump for candidates across the country. In some rare instances, office-seekers are boasting cross-party endorsements, such as former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) rallying for Arizona Republicans and Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) backing several Democrats for congressional seats. These high-profile surrogates aren’t limited to politicians — celebrities are campaigning in several swing states.
The Hill
However, some ambitious officials are leveraging the midterms to build political clout ahead of the 2024 elections. On both sides of the aisle, politicians are looking to flex their influence and gain national traction ahead of suspected presidential bids. The lengthy list includes Vice President Kamala Harris (D), Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (D), Governor Glenn Youngkin (R-FL), Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), and Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), among others.
Closing Message. Here in the final days of the campaign, candidates are making their final pitch to the American people, hoping for a message that resonates. Republicans have sought to make the election a referendum on what they believe are failed Democratic policies under the Biden administration — chiefly on the economy, crime, and immigration. Democrats, meanwhile, have tried to cast the GOP as too extreme, particularly on abortion and welfare programs like Social Security and Medicare.
Salon
Results. Following the 2020 elections, some states took days to declare winners in the races. This year, we may face similar delays and might not know winners in some of the most-watched contests — such as Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania — on election night. Each state has different rules for when and how they count votes, leading to discrepancies between reporting times. Some states, like Florida and North Carolina, count mail ballots — which typically favor Democrats — before Election Day, and therefore initial results skew towards Democrats. Experts refer to this phenomenon as a “blue mirage.” Meanwhile, states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania count Election Day votes — which tend to lean Republican — first, creating a “red mirage.”
Tomorrow’s elections offer our nation a clear choice. If the American people entrust Democrats to continue leading our country, we will continue on our path of progress. Should they return Republicans to power, they will drag us backward. The American people are struggling, and Democrats are the only ones with the understanding and plan to address those issues. Democrats want to protect access to lifesaving reproductive healthcare, ensure every eligible American can vote, address the persistent threats of climate change and gun violence, and build an economy that uplifts working people. The voters should empower Democrats to deliver on this vision by electing them up and down the ballot.
The elections tomorrow are a definitive statement about the nation’s economy. While Democrats are focused on issues that do not impact Americans, Republicans will deliver on their promises to fix this nation’s economy, eliminate inappropriate material from schools, and solve rising crime — particularly at the Southern Border. It is time for Americans to reject the disastrous policies of the Biden administration and send a clear message that the Democrat Party fails to represent the people.
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AP Government & Politics
