A Strike on Poland

Misplaced Missile

Facts on the Ground. On Tuesday, Russia unleashed a barrage of missile attacks across Ukraine, plunging much of the nation into darkness as the strikes hit crucial energy infrastructure. Amid the blitz, Russian-made projectiles hit the Polish town of Przewodow, a village that sits on the border of Ukraine, killing two civilians. The incident could mark a pivotal moment in the war in Ukraine, threatening to plunge much of the world directly into the conflict.

The Australian

Article 5. Poland is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), an international military alliance of 30 nations. The pact includes a clause known as Article 5 that says an attack against one member state is an attack against all member states. This provision says that NATO countries can use force against the aggressor in response to such an event. Under this collective defense agreement, if Russia intentionally launched the missiles on Polish soil, Poland could trigger Article 5 and bring the entire alliance into direct conflict with Russia. U.S. and European officials have stressed that investigations into the incident are ongoing. Since the organization formed in 1949, there has been only one instance of the Article’s use — following the attacks on September 11, 2001, the group invoked the clause, and NATO forces subsequently deployed to Afghanistan.

CNBC

NATO Involvement. In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many expressed concern about whether the conflict could devolve into an outright war between NATO and Russia. After all, the whole point of the collective security arrangement was to dissuade such an event from ever occurring. Ukraine has faced significant delays in its long-held ambition of joining the organization, with many international relations experts claiming member states believed allowing the nation to join could provoke Russian aggression. In response to its invasion, NATO activated its Response Force — thousands of multinational, high-readiness troops — for the first time. The bloc deployed forces to its eastern members, including those directly bordering Russia. Throughout this year, the alliance has even begun adding two new members — Sweden and Finland. These incidents have sparked questions about what it would look like if Russia triggered a full-fledged activation of the pact.

Responses

G20. News of the attack came to many world leaders attending a Group of 20 (G20) Summit in Bali, Indonesia. The G20 is an international forum of the world’s largest economies. Western nations pushed for the group to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and repeatedly voiced concerns about potential nuclear threats. Even outside the West, leaders of countries typically more friendly to Russia — including Chinese President Xi Jinping — have said the threats are unacceptable. In a video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy echoed those worries, pushing attendees to economically and diplomatically isolate Russia.

Reuters

Denial. The Russian Defense Ministry denied being behind “any strikes on targets near the Ukrainian-Polish border,” saying that photos of purported damage “have nothing to do” with Russian weapons. It is unclear if the missiles came from Russia and if they were supposed to hit Poland. NATO and Polish statements regarding the incident used language suggesting they are not currently treating the blast as an international Russian act. On Tuesday night, President Biden said he believed it is “unlikely” the projectiles were fired from Russia, although he stressed the information is preliminary.

Polish Next Steps. While Poland appears unlikely to invoke Article 5 without clear evidence of a deliberate Russian attack, the nation has taken other actions in response to the strike. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called an emergency meeting of the nation’s national defense and security council. Also, the country is reportedly weighing invoking Article 4 of NATO’s founding treaty, which allows members to bring an issue of concern to the alliance’s political decision-making body. Such a move would allow member states to meet and discuss how to respond to the incident. In its 73-year history, the organization has only invoked Article 4 seven times, most recently when several states used it to hold meetings on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The invocation does not carry military obligations, but deliberations could lead to joint NATO action.

Military Times

Use of Nukes. Amid the frenzy over whether the incident could lead to a direct NATO-Russia conflict, some worry it could also increase the risk of Russia using nuclear weapons. Russian officials have repeatedly flirted with the possibility of escalating the Ukraine conflict beyond conventional forces. After Russian-occupied portions of eastern Ukraine voted to join Russia — many nations decried these referendums as shams — Russia officially annexed the four regions. Some experts warned the move could lead Moscow to declare attacks to reclaim the territory were direct assaults on it and thus required a nuclear response. Still, many international leaders have criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin for suggesting he may use nuclear weapons, and he has since downplayed some of his threats. Russia using nukes would certainly be a pivotal point in the conflict in Ukraine and would likely escalate global tensions to heights not seen since World War II.

Discussion Questions

1. What steps could countries — including NATO members and Russia — take to de-escalate this situation?
2. Do you think NATO has been effective in deterring conflict? Explain your view.
3. How should NATO respond if investigations show the incident was a deliberate Russian attack?
4. Why do you think world leaders that are traditionally conflicting — such as President Biden and Chinese President Xi — largely agree on condemning Russia’s nuclear threats?

Classroom Content

8

min

BBC News

Claims of Russian missile strike on Poland trigger NATO emergency talks

• Article
•
• 10/15/2022

C